TÜRKİYE İÇİN İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ HİPOTEZİNİN DALGACIK TABANLI BİRİM KÖK TESTLERİ İLE SINANMASI

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türkiye için işsizlik histerisi hipotezinin geçerliliği 2005:01- 2018:10 dönemi için dalgacık tabanlı birim kök testleri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın sonuçlarının karşılaştırılabilmesi amacıyla zaman ve frekans alanı birim kök testleri birlikte kullanılmıştır. Zaman alanı birim kök testlerinden Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) birim kök testi kullanılmışken frekans alanı birim kök testlerinden Fan ve Gencay (2010) dalgacık tabanlı varyans oranı ve Eroğlu ve Soybilgen (2018) dalgacık tabanlı Augmented DickeyFuller (ADF) birim kök testleri kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre Türkiye için işsizlik oranı serisinin seviyesinde durağan olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Diğer bir ifadeyle işsizlik oranı değişkenine gelen şokların etkisi kalıcı değil geçicidir. Bu sonuca göre Türkiye için incelenen dönemde işsizlik histerisi hipotezi geçerli değildir.

In this study, the validity of unemployment hysteresis hypothesis was_x000D_ investigated using wavelet-based unit root tests for the period 2005:01-2018:10_x000D_ for Turkey. Time and frequency domain unit root tests were used together to_x000D_ compare the results of the study. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root_x000D_ test was used as time domain unit root test in the study. On the other hand, Fan_x000D_ and Gencay (2010) wavelet-based variance ratio test and Eroğlu and Soybilgen_x000D_ (2018) wavelet-based ADF test were used as frequency domain unit root tests._x000D_ According to the results, the unemployment rate series have been obtained_x000D_ stationary for Turkey. In other words, the effect of shocks on unemployment rate_x000D_ is temporary, not permanent. According to the results of this examination period,_x000D_ the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis does not valid in Turkey

In this study, the validity of unemployment hysteresis hypothesis was investigated using wavelet-based unit root tests for the period 2005:01-2018:10 for Turkey. Time and frequency domain unit root tests were used together to compare the results of the study. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test was used as time domain unit root test in the study. On the other hand, Fan and Gencay (2010) wavelet-based variance ratio test and Eroğlu and Soybilgen (2018) wavelet-based ADF test were used as frequency domain unit root tests. According to the results, the unemployment rate series have been obtained stationary for Turkey. In other words, the effect of shocks on unemployment rate is temporary, not permanent. According to the results of this examination period, the unemployment hysteresis hypothesis does not valid in Turkey