Taşra mahallelere yapılan ulaşım yatırımlarının bölgeye olan katkısının araştırılması: Eskişehir için bir uygulama çalışması = Investigation of the impact of transportation investments on rural districts: A case study for Eskişehir

Abstract

This thesis investigates the impact of transportation investments made by Investment Monitoring and Coordination Directorates (YİKOB) in rural areas of metropolitan cities, following the 2012 enactment of Law No. 6360 on Establishing Metropolitan Municipalities in Fourteen Provinces and Twenty-Seven Districts and Amending Certain Laws and Decrees, with a specific case study focused on Eskişehir. (Resmî Gazete, 2012). The aim of the thesis is to evaluate the current status of transportation investments in rural neighborhoods by Investment Monitoring and Coordination Directorates (YİKOB), analyze the effects of these investments on agriculture, livestock, and tourism, and provide recommendations to enhance these effects. The study examines the outcomes of road construction projects in rural districts in Eskişehir province in detail. In this context, the contributions of cobblestone and asphalt road construction projects conducted in the districts of Seyitgazi and Mihalıççık are analyzed. During the literature review, studies on rural transportation infrastructure in Turkey and worldwide were examined. Projects such as KIRDES and KÖYDES implemented in Turkey aim to improve living standards in rural regions. These programs support transportation investments and other agricultural infrastructure projects, aiming to stimulate the rural economy and enhance the quality of life for people living in rural areas (T.C. Tarım ve Orman Bakanlığı, 2020). Examples of rural development programs worldwide include the Horizon 2020 and LEADER Programs in European countries, the Rural Transportation Initiative Program in the United States, and Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) in India. (World Bank, 2020). The literature review reveals that improvements in rural road infrastructure reduce agricultural production costs, enhance livestock activities and tourism revenues, and facilitate market access for local communities. After the literature review, data on road construction projects conducted by the Eskişehir Investment Monitoring and Coordination Directorate (YİKOB) was collected, and the effects of these projects on agriculture, livestock, and tourism were analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. (Pesaran & Shin, 2001). The ARDL bounds testing approach, developed by Mohammad Hashem Pesaran and Yongcheol Shin in 2001, is a cointegration method widely used in recent years to examine long-term relationships between variables. (Pesaran & Shin, 2001). In Mihalıççık district of Eskişehir, 634,000 m² of cobblestones and 24,600 meters of asphalt roads were constructed between 2011 and 2023, while in Seyitgazi district, 582,000 m² of cobblestones and 31,950 meters of asphalt roads were built during the same period. These investments aimed to improve transportation infrastructure in rural areas to support agriculture, livestock, and tourism. (Eskişehir YİKOB, 2023). In summary, an official dataset was prepared based on data obtained from the Investment Monitoring and Coordination Directorate, Provincial/District Agriculture Directorates, and Provincial Culture and Tourism Directorates. The created time series were tabulated according to annual distributions, and dependent and independent variables were identified. Subsequently, the effects of transportation investments made by the Investment Monitoring and Coordination Directorate on agriculture, livestock, and tourism in the Seyitgazi and Mihalıççık districts were observed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method. The analyses revealed that cobblestone (m²) and asphalt road (m) projects had a significant and positive effect on the number of cattle and sheep, agricultural activities (wheat, barley, and sugar beet), and the number of tourists in both Seyitgazi and Mihalıççık districts. The bound test results also indicated a long-term relationship between the dependent variables and the construction of cobblestones and asphalt roads. For example, the analysis of the effect of asphalt road investments in Seyitgazi district on cattle breeding, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method, found a p-value of 0.039 (statistically significant, p < 0.05). This indicates that the increase in asphalt road length in the current period has a positive and significant effect on the number of cattle. However, the coefficients for Lag1, Lag2, and Lag3 were not statistically significant, suggesting that past values of the dependent variable (number of cattle) do not have a notable effect on the current period. According to the Bound Test results: Test Statistic (-3.157) > Critical Value (10%) (-2.57) and Critical Value (5%) (-2.86), indicating cointegration. Test Statistic (-3.157) < Critical Value (1%) (-3.43), indicating no cointegration. The Bound Test results indicate a long-term relationship between the number of cattle and asphalt road length. In general, the improvement of transportation has yielded significant outcomes not only technically but also economically and socially. The revitalization of agricultural and livestock activities has directly contributed to the district economy, while making cultural and historical assets accessible has played an important role in boosting tourism. From this perspective, it has been concluded that investment programs for transportation should be designed with consideration of the district's agriculture, livestock, and tourism factors. The transportation investments made in Eskişehir have shown successful results. Based on these analysis results, it is crucial to focus agricultural, livestock, and tourism policies on transportation infrastructure projects and to continue these projects to support sustainable economic development in the region. These findings demonstrate that rural development programs and transportation infrastructure investments are critical for local economic growth and social welfare. Therefore, it has been concluded that investments in sustainable transportation projects should be increased to promote the development of rural areas in Turkey and globally. As a result of the practices carried out, road construction projects in rural districts such as Seyitgazi and Mihalıççık have yielded positive outcomes in agriculture, livestock, and tourism, contributing to the local economic and social dynamics of these districts. In the future, it is recommended to evaluate the broader and long-term impacts of this model, compare implementation results across different regions, and develop new strategies. Thus, the positive effects of transportation investments on rural development can be further enhanced. Keywords: Rural Development, Transportation Investments, Investment Monitoring and Coordination Directorate, ARDL Analysis Method