Hydroclimatic Trends and Drought Risk Assessment in the Ceyhan River Basin: Insights from SPI and STI Indices

Abstract

This study examined the spatiotemporal climate variability over the Ceyhan River basin in Southern Anatolia, Turkiye using historical rainfall and temperature observations recorded at 15 meteorology stations. Various statistical and geostatistical techniques were employed to determine the significance of trends for each climatic variable in the whole basin and its three sub-regions (northern, central, and southern regions). The results revealed that the recent years in the basin were generally warmer compared with previous years, with a temperature increase of approximately 4 & DEG;C. The standardized temperature index analysis indicated a shift towards hotter periods after 2005, while the coldest periods were observed in the early 1990s. The spatial distribution of temperature showed non-uniform patterns throughout the basin. The first decade of the study period (1975-1984) was characterized by relatively cold temperatures, followed by a transition period from cold to hot between 1985 and 2004, and a hotter period in the last decade (2005-2014). The rainfall analysis indicated a decreasing trend in annual rainfall, particularly in the northern and central regions of the basin. However, the southern region showed an increasing trend in annual rainfall during the study period. The spatial distribution of rainfall exhibited considerable variability across the basin, with different regions experiencing distinct patterns. The standardized precipitation index analysis revealed the occurrence of multiple drought events throughout the study period. The most severe and prolonged droughts were observed in the years 1992-1996 and 2007-2010. These drought events had significant impacts on water availability and agricultural productivity in the basin.