Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Network: A Case Study in Kocaeli-Turkiye

Abstract

Recently, wind energy has been utilized globally as a renewable, sustainable, and eco-friendly energy source. However, wind energy's unpredictable and stochastic nature influences its entry into the national electrical grid. An effective wind speed prediction is required to meet these challenges. In this article, the Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Network (NARNN) model is used and investigated for short-term wind speed forecasting by taking a dataset from the Kandira wind farm in Kocaeli- Turkiye. The crux of the paper is to improve the actual application of the existing NARNN model with factual data using a different number of neurons of the hidden layer, delays, and training functions in the learning phase called the model's hyperparameters. The mean squared error (MSE) and determination coefficient (R-2) are used as performance measures. As a result, the hyperparameter optimization for wind speed prediction using the NARNN increased the forecasting performance. Suggested NARNN model is compared with its exogenous version (NARXNN) using three extra inputs. It is observed that NARNN is not falling behind NARXNN because they provide close results, and NARNN has been shorter to run. Likewise, the learning algorithms were also compared, and it turned out that Bayesian Regularization (BR) is the best learning algorithm. Still, Levenberg Marquardt (LM) algorithm is much faster to execute and provides close results to BR.