Exploring the Impact of Recycling on Demand-Supply Balance of Critical Materials in Green Transition: A Dynamic Multi-Regional Waste Input-Output Analysis

Abstract

Addressing our climate urgency requiresvarious renewableand low-carbontechnologies, which often contain critical materials that face potentialsupply risks. Existing studies on the critical material implicationsof green transition have used various methodologies, each with prosand cons in providing a system understanding. Here, we integratedthe dynamic material flow analysis and input-output modelingprinciples in an integrated multi-regional waste input-outputmodel to assess the demand-supply balance and recycling potentialsfor cobalt, lithium, neodymium, and dysprosium under various energyscenarios projected to 2050. We show that although all four criticalmaterials are likely to face strong growth in annual demand (as highas a factor of 25 compared to the 2015 level), only cobalt has a highercumulative demand by 2050 than the known reserves. Nevertheless, consideringthe sheer scale of demand increase and long lead time of opening orexpanding new mines, recycling efforts are urgently needed to supplementprimary supply toward global green transition. This model integrationis proven useful and can be extended to more critical materials andgreen technologies. Anintegrated dynamic model reveals demand-supplybalance and recycling potentials of cobalt, lithium, neodymium, anddysprosium in green transition.