Enerji talebindeki artış ve nüfus büyümesi, enerji kaynaklarına olan ihtiyacı artırarak, fosil yakıtlara dayalı enerji üretimi modelini sorgulanır hale getirmiştir. Çevresel etkiler ve iklim değişikliği nedeniyle, alternatif enerji kaynaklarına yönelme ihtiyacı doğmuştur. Yenilenebilir enerji, sürekli mevcut olan ve tükenmeyen enerji kaynaklarıdır. Bu enerji kaynaklarının avantajları çevresel ve sürdürülebilirlik konuları, enerji bağımsızlığı ve maliyet avantajlarıdır. Yenilenebilir enerjinin önemi giderek artmaktadır. Bu çalışma, Katar'da 2030 yılında tahmin edilen elektrik enerjisi talebini karşılamak amacıyla güneş enerjisi kullanımını artırmak ve elektrik üretim kapasitesini genişletmeye odaklanmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, villaların çatılarına entegre edilecek güneş enerjisi sistemlerinin potansiyelini değerlendirmektedir. Çalışma, 2030 yılı için Katar'ın elektrik enerjisi talep tahmini yapılmış, örnek bir villa çatısı üzerinde güneş enerjisi sistemi tasarlanmış ve simüle edilmiştir. Bu veriler, Katar'daki tüm villalar için genelleştirilerek, güneş enerjisi sistemlerinin toplam üretim kapasitesi ve 2030 yılında Katar'ın enerji üretimine ve çevresel sürdürülebilirliğine potansiyel katkıları belirlenmiştir. Çalışmada, 2030 yılına kadar Katar'ın yıllık elektrik tüketimini tahmin etmek için bir çoklu regresyon modeli kullanıyor. Model, nüfus, GSYİH, ihracat ve tüketici fiyat endeksi gibi faktörleri dikkate alıyor. Modelin tahmin yeteneği, tahmin edilen değerler ile gerçek değerler arasındaki karşılaştırmayla değerlendiriliyor. Çalışma, 1980-2021 yıllarına ait verileri kullanarak, 2030 yılı elektrik enerjisi ihtiyaç tahminleri için senaryolar geliştiriyor. Excel programı yardımıyla, bağımsız değişkenler ile elektrik tüketimi arasındaki ilişki belirleniyor ve tahmin değerleri elde ediliyor. Modelin %99,55'lik ortalama başarı oranı, onun oldukça başarılı olduğunu gösteriyor. Tahminler sonucunda, 2030 yılı için Katar'ın elektrik talebi düşük, orta ve yüksek senaryolar için sırasıyla 54.135,47 GWh, 68.812,62 GWh ve 83.489,76 GWh olarak hesaplanıyor. Ardından, Katar'daki 126 bin tek katlı villanın çatılarına monte edilecek olan güneş enerjisi sistemlerinin, 2030 yılındaki elektrik üretimine sağlayacağı katkı simülasyonlar ve değerlendirmelerle incelenmiştir. Tek bir konuta kurulan bu sistemlerin performans analizleri gerçekleştirilmiş ve elde edilen bulgular, 126 bin villa için genel bir durum değerlendirmesi olarak ölçeklendirilmiştir. Ortalama bir çatı alanı 300 m2 olup, her çatıya kurulabilecek güneş enerji sisteminin kapasitesi 28,8 kWh olarak belirlenmiştir. Yıllık olarak bir çatıdan elde edilebilecek enerji miktarı ise 58,26 MWh'dir. Bu sistemin tüm villalara uygulanması durumunda, toplamda yıllık olarak 7.340,76 GWh enerji üretimine katkı sağlayabileceği belirlenmiştir. Bu durum, Katar'ın 2030 yılı elektrik talebine düşük, orta ve yüksek senaryolara göre sırasıyla %13,55, %10,66 ve %8,79 oranında katkı sağlama potansiyeli olduğu görülmüştür. Ayrıca, Katar'ın 2030 yılındaki tepe elektrik talebinin yaklaşık %30'u kurulacak sistemler tarafından karşılanması beklenmektedir. Bu sistemlerin çevresel etkisi açısından kullanılması yılda 3,670,380 ton CO2 emisyonunun azaltılması anlamına gelmektedir. Ayrıca sistemin bir yıl boyunca üreteceği elektrik enerjisi 631,305.36 TEP (ton eşdeğer petrol) olarak belirlenmiştir. Bu durum, Katar'ın doğal gaz tüketimini azaltarak daha fazla doğal gazı uluslararası piyasaya sunabilmesine ve böylece doğal gaz ihracat gelirini artırabilmesine olanak sağlar. Çalışma sonuçları, Katar'daki villaların çatılarına güneş enerjisi sistemlerinin entegrasyonunun, ülkenin enerji hedeflerini karşılamasına ve çevresel sürdürülebilirliğini geliştirmesine yardımcı olabileceğini göstermiştir. Bu uygulama, karbon emisyonlarını düşürerek küresel ısınmayla mücadeleye yardımcı olabilir ve Katar'ın uluslararası iklim hedeflerine ulaşmasını destekleyebilir. Ayrıca, fosil yakıtların kullanımını azaltarak ve yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarına geçiş yaparak, Katar'ın sürdürülebilir bir geleceğe ilerlemesine katkıda bulunabilir.
The increasing demand for energy and population growth have prompted a reevaluation of the conventional energy production model reliant on fossil fuels. The need to transition to alternative energy sources has arisen due to environmental impacts and climate change. Renewable energy sources, constantly available and inexhaustible, offer advantages in terms of environmental sustainability, energy independence, and cost benefits, increasing their significance over time. This study examines the potential of integrating solar energy systems into the rooftops of villas in Qatar, with the goal of enhancing solar energy utilization and expanding electricity production capacity. The study projects Qatar's electricity demand for the year 2030, designs and simulates a solar energy system on the rooftop of a representative villa, and extrapolates this data for all villas in Qatar. This provides an estimation of the total production capacity of solar energy systems and their potential contributions to Qatar's energy production and environmental sustainability in 2030. Qatar possesses substantial solar energy potential due to its geographical location. With annual solar radiation ranging from 2,000 to 2,200 kWh/m² and sunshine duration between 3,500 to 3,800 hours, the country places significant emphasis on the utilization of solar energy to meet its energy needs. This advantageous position illustrates the potential for Qatar to generate manifold more energy from the sun than it consumes. Qatar's Vision 2030 sets out sustainable development goals in the energy sector, with solar energy playing a significant role. The country aims to reduce energy dependency, increase energy security, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by financing solar energy projects and encouraging private sector investment. In the relevant first chapter of this thesis, an analysis based on a multiple regression model is presented, considering factors such as population, GDP, exports, and consumer price index, to predict annual electricity consumption for the period leading up to 2030. This analysis includes the evaluation of the model's predictive capability and performance, with the success of the model revealed in the comparison of predicted and actual values. In this context, to provide significant contributions at critical points in Qatar's energy sector and bring a different perspective to demand forecasting, scenarios are developed for 2030 electricity needs forecasts using the multiple regression analysis method with data from 1980-2021. In this study, the ratio of the relationship between independent variables and electricity consumption was determined using Excel, and electricity demand forecast values were obtained with regression analysis. The average absolute success rate of 99.55% obtained in performance analysis for Qatar's 2030 electricity demand forecast indicates a highly successful model. According to the results, Qatar's electricity demand predictions for 2030 are calculated as 54,135.47 GWh, 68,812.62 GWh, and 83,489.76 GWh for low, medium, and high scenarios, respectively. In the second chapter of the study, a simulation and evaluation of the contribution of on-grid solar energy systems, installed on the roofs of 126,000 single-story villa-type houses in Qatar, to electricity production by 2030 has been conducted. According to the results of the study, the contribution of solar energy systems installed on the roofs of a total of 126,000 single-story villas in Qatar to electricity production in 2030 has been examined in terms of performance analysis and environmental impacts. In the initial stage, the installation of an on-grid solar energy system on a single-story house and the technical analysis to evaluate the performance of the system are addressed. Due to the research on 126,000 single-story villas in the study, an average roof area must be taken. According to the research conducted by the Qatar Planning and Statistics Authority, the average roof area of a villa in Qatar has been calculated as 300 m². Critical calculations based on meteorological data selection, array and string numbers, system design, and potential shading analyses were made for the application of the planned solar energy systems on the roofs. On average, it has been determined that a solar energy system with a capacity of 28.8 kWh can be installed. Solar radiation values and climate data of Qatar were obtained from PVGIS-SARAH sources. The PVsyst v7.1 simulation tool was used in this study to perform the installation and performance simulations of on-grid solar energy systems. According to the simulation results, the amount of energy that can be transferred annually to the grid from a roof system was determined to be 58.26 MWh. The technical specifications, performance, and suitability of the photovoltaic (PV) panels to be used in the study were chosen considering these factors. The choice of inverters was made considering technical specifications, performance, and compatibility with the panels. Cable selection and protection calculations were performed in a way to minimize losses and ensure compatibility between the panels and the inverter. At the end of the thesis work, a performance analysis of the solar energy systems to be mounted on the roofs for single-story houses and villas in Qatar was made, and design and simulation results were addressed. The systems applied to a total of 126,000 single-story houses and villas can provide an annual energy production of 7,340.76 GWh. The contributions of these solar energy systems to electricity production and their environmental contributions were evaluated. According to the low, medium, and high scenarios developed for Qatar's 2030 electricity demand, it is anticipated that the solar energy systems will contribute to electricity production by 13.55%, 10.66%, and 8.79%, respectively. Furthermore, it is expected that approximately 30% of Qatar's peak electricity demand in 2030 will be met by the systems to be installed. In terms of environmental impacts, it has been emphasized that the use of solar energy systems in 126,000 houses and villas will reduce annual CO2 emissions by 3,670,380 tons and that this will have a positive impact on climate change. The value of the electricity energy produced throughout the year in terms of TOE (ton of oil equivalent) was calculated as 631,305.36 TOE. Meeting local energy needs using solar energy could enable Qatar to reduce its natural gas consumption and therefore offer more natural gas to international markets. This could contribute to an increase in revenue that Qatar earns from natural gas exports. The results of the study show that the integration of solar energy systems into the roofs of villas in Qatar could assist in meeting the country's energy goals and improving its environmental sustainability. This application could contribute to the fight against global warming by reducing carbon emissions and support Qatar in reaching its international climate goals. Also, it could contribute to Qatar's progress towards a sustainable future by reducing the use of fossil fuels and transitioning to renewable energy sources. The results of the research thesis work on the design, simulation, and 2030 energy production and environmental impacts of rooftop solar energy systems aimed at increasing the electricity production capacity in Qatar have been summarized and recommendations for similar studies to be carried out in the future have been presented. These recommendations are of critical importance in terms of achieving sustainable development goals in the energy sector, ensuring energy supply security, and reducing environmental impacts. Strategies and policies that need to be implemented to increase the proliferation of solar energy systems in Qatar and to increase the contribution of these systems to electricity production have been mentioned.
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