Modeling of energy intensity in Turkey

Abstract

This study aims to model the energy intensity ( or reversely energy use efficiency) of Turkey by using macroeconomic variables. The energy use per US$1,000 is found to decrease about 0.294 kg of oil equivalent per real US$1,000 as the world energy real price increases by one dollar, about 0.134 kg as the real per capita gross domestic product ( GDP) increases by one dollar, about 0.008 as the energy gap ( approximating net energy import) decreases by one kt of oil equivalent, and it is found to decrease about 4.88 kg of oil equivalent annually. The estimated models indicate co-integrated movement between energy intensity and explanatory variables for the period 1980- 2011, as well each variable is found integrated at the first-order differences. These results imply that the energy efficiency improves as the world energy price and the per capita GDP increase while it decreases as the energy gap or import enlarges.