THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON SPATIOTEMPORAL CHANGES OF HAZELNUT (CORYLUS AVELLANA) CULTIVATION AREAS IN THE BLACK SEA REGION, TURKEY

Abstract

Turkey ranks the first among the hazelnut producers in the world. The purpose of this study is to question whether or not the hazelnut plant that grows under natural climate conditions will be affected by climate change. Spatial and temporal change simulations have been done in order to define the actual and the future status of hazelnut cultivation areas. The Marmara and the Black Sea regions have been chosen as study areas of hazelnut production in Turkey. The possible evolution of the current climate conditions to affect hazelnut cultivation in the upcoming 90 years and the estimated changes to occur in hazelnut areas have been asserted in the study. In order to determine the future climate conditions, the set of temperature and rainfall data of the upcoming 90 year period (2011 - 2100) obtained from the A2 scenario of RegCM3 regional climate model has been used and by taking the averages of each 10 year period, it has been simulated with the MATLAB software. While an increase of up to 6 degrees C in temperature for the upcoming 90 years can be expected to have negative effects on hazelnut cultivation depending on the A2 scenario (the worst), no change has been observed in the rainfall scale that may negatively affect hazelnuts. In particular, it has been observed that this temperature change may cause vertical and horizontal changes in hazelnut areas. Accordingly, it has been anticipated that hazelnut cultivation on the coast line between 0 - 250 m may get affected in a negative way and the areas exceeding 1500 m that are not currently suitable for hazelnut cultivation may become arable lands due to vertical change.